Bay Area Skeptics

The San Francisco Bay Area's skeptical organization since 1982

Chaos and the SciSchmooze

Bob Siederer
24 February 2025

Hello again Science Fans!

In the two weeks since I last wrote the SciSchmooze, so much has happened in the world related to science that I’m not sure where to begin. I usually start collecting articles in the two weeks prior to the issue and have 10 – 15 to write about. Today, I have 28! Things have happened so fast, however, that some of them are sure to be outdated. So let’s see if I can make heads or tails of what I’ve saved for this issue.

Starting with … Space

Have you forgotten about Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, the two astronauts who were sent to the International Space Station on the Boeing Starliner capsule last June, expecting to return to earth a few days later? Because of several issues with the Starliner, they stayed at the Space Station and the capsule returned to earth empty, safely, but not without additional thruster issues. The two astronauts will now return to Earth earlier than had been previously announced.

There’s been a lot of discussion about whether or not they have been stranded on the Space Station, with the press using that word in headlines because it is sexier. NASA has always maintained that they are not stranded, and now the president wants them back early. You can decide for yourself what is the strongest argument.

Here’s a detective story involving the Murchison Widefield Array radio telescope. The telescope, which does not look at all like what most of us think of when we think of a telescope, collects radio waves that make their way through space to earth. And, occasionally, it gets television signals! Where did those come from?

Gravitational lensing, a theoretical possibility of Einstein’s theory of relativity, was first verified a few years ago. Since then, many examples have been found. Gravitational lensing can appear as a ring of light if the alignment of things is just right. And now we’ve seen a case of an Einstein Ring around nearby galaxy NGC 6505! The ring is actually the light from a distant galaxy many light years away, behind NGC 6505 from our perspective.

There’s a super massive black hole at the center of our galaxy, the Milky Way, as there is in most galaxies. Known as Sagittarius A*, this black hole is emitting “flares”, some short, some longer and very bright, with no observable pattern. Here’s a video of the flares over a 9 hour period, condensed into 30 seconds.

Then there’s this exoplanet named Tylos that has a climate unlike anything we’ve ever seen anywhere, with clouds of vaporized metal and rains of liquid sapphires and rubies! Wind speeds were clocked between 8.5 miles per second and 16.7 miles per second. That’s faster than the speed of sound. There are also huge temperature extremes between morning and evening on this tidally locked planet.

Artificial Intelligence

As regular readers know, I’m somewhat skeptical about AI. There’s no doubt that it is a transformative technology. But it has significant drawbacks given its propensity to hallucinate. It is supposed to save us time, but instead of making us more productive, it may make us dumber and overconfident. I think a similar thing happens every time there is a big disruptor. Those clinging to the “old way” lament that users of whatever the new technology is don’t understand or care how it works. Think of the transition from slide rules to electronic calculators. Do we really need to know the math behind what the calculator is calculating?

How has AI affected education? Here’s a look at the four worst ways, as well as some ideas for how AI can benefit education.

By now, I’m sure you’ve read about the Chinese AI startup DeepSeek, which announced a large language model that uses a fraction of the computing resources, and accompanying cost, that ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and others consume. Why the huge difference? This article may help you understand, and how it might affect AI going forward.

Health

Pancreatic cancer is one of the most deadly forms of cancer. It is often not detected until it has spread, and treatment options are limited. Now, researchers have developed an mRNA vaccine that has completed a phase 1 clinical trial, and shows promise in treating this deadly cancer.

Separately, a new test has been developed that detects pancreatic cancer with 85% accuracy, far earlier than existing methods.

Science, history, and politics

Let’s start with Rose Ferreira. She’s one of thousands of researchers working on various scientific projects have had their work scrubbed. Her work was with NASA. Here’s Phil Plait’s thoughts on this, and the general attack on science by the administration.

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr has been confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services. The only Republican to vote against his confirmation was Mitch McConnell. Too little, too late. Immediatelly, he moved to fire 5,200 HHS workers across various agencies, including the NIH and CDC. This is a long article by a doctor that is worth the read as it looks at the types of programs being cut, what some of Kennedy’s statements really mean, and the potential side effects for public health.

The annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science just held their 2025 meeting in Boston, and the cuts and potential fallout were a main topic of discussion and lament. One statement in this article really bothered me; “The Trump administration has said its plan for the N.I.H. would curb waste, not research”. Who decides what is research and what it waste? What if that person thinks all research is waste? That is not at all far-fetched. See the comments in the previous article.

Here are six examples of crucial jobs no longer being performed because of the cuts to public health, environmental, and safety spending, told by the people who performed the work. It is easy to throw out everything. What’s hard is to pick through the thousands of studies and decide which ones are worth keeping and which can go. Scientists need to make those decisions, not politicians who don’t understand the ramifications of the work.

While these cuts are supposed to be saving the taxpayer’s money, in reality that often isn’t true. In many cases, the money saved in avoiding an outcome (such as a pandemic, or the spread of a food-borne illness) far outweigh the monetary cost. In others, the work is paid for by industry, not the government. This is especially true in food safety and some health-related areas.

More on Kennedy…how he “follows the science”…as he sees the science anyway. His first speech to HHS employees highlighted his view that spirituality needs to be the foundation of our wellness. Thoughts and prayers.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the caps placed on “indirect costs” in biomedical research grants. Here’s a follow up interview with three such people who work “indirectly” and how what they do supports the actual research…or used to.

For the history component, I turn to Heather Cox Richardson who, as usual, puts things in historical perspective. Here, she looks at the cuts to USAID, NIH, the Department of Education, and FEMA, where those programs came from, and how the public feels about them.

Two days later, on President’s Day, she reflects on the holiday, George Washington, and where we are today.

An Election

Today, Germany held a so-called snap election. I won’t go into the details of the differences between their political system and ours, or any parliamentary system for that matter. If you are interested in what lead to this early election, the party positions, and the overall system, I’ll send you to “Feli from Germany” on YouTube. Feli’s explanation is clear, unbiased, and very informative. She starts with a video on what caused the government crisis that resulted in the collapse of the coalition government and the snap election. A month later, it appeared that aspects of the “crisis” were planned and staged. Last week, she took a look at everything that has happened during the campaigns, the different party positions, the likely Chancellor-to-be, and the poll standings. Today she talked about outside interference, what happens after the election, and the latest developments.

As I write this, the voting is over and the results are more or less what the pre-election polls predicted. 84% of Germans voted, the highest percentage since Germany’s reunification. No party received a majority, so the winning party must form a coalition government with one or more of the other parties before a chancellor can be named.

By the way, Feli is now a US Citizen, and holds dual citizenship with Germany. Her perspectives on both US and German culture are quite well reasoned.

A Somber Anniversary

Monday marks the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As impossible as it seemed at the time that such an event could occur in this day and age, who would have thought that the war would still be going on three years later. The toll on Ukraine and Russia has been staggering, in both human and economic terms.

Even more unimaginable is the administration’s statements blaming Ukraine for starting the war and recent comments made to heads of European governments by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding NATO and Ukraine.

My friend and her daughter remain safely in Germany, although she’s very concerned about the German election results because of anti-immigration and refugee positions put forth by some of the political parties.

Slava Ukraini (Glory to Ukraine).

Sunflowers are the national flower of Ukraine. Credit: Gillian Claus, via Facebook. We first published this picture three years ago.

Have a great week in Science!
Bob


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